Spatial and temporal analyses of dissident Republican violence

Dr Zoe Marchment1

1University College London, ,

This paper seeks to expand on the existing literature relating to the geography of terrorism through an analysis of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of incidents by dissident Republicans in Belfast. Micro level analyses could be effective in guiding interventions and the allocation of security resources needed to manage terrorist related incidents, which can improve the efficiency and productivity of police resources. However, micro level spatial and temporal analyses in the field of terrorism research do not fully reflect the advances made in the study of general crime, and most recent analyses regarding spatial and temporal patterns of group terrorism using finer scales of analysis have been focused on conflicts in Middle Eastern countries such as Israel, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Little has been done to examine the threat from a sustained campaign of violence in the West. This paper incorporates a Kaplan Meier Hazard Estimate, Knox test, various spatial statistics and bivariate analyses. Taken together, the results demonstrate that dissident Republican incidents cluster in space and time and that subsequent incidents are influenced by characteristics of previous events.


Biography:

Zoe has recently completed her PhD in the Department of Security and Crime Science, UCL. Her research examined the spatial decision making of terrorist target selection, with a focus on lone actors and Violent Dissident Republican activity. She holds a BSc in Psychology and MSc in Countering Organised Crime and Terrorism. Zoe has worked on projects for the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory; Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats (CREST); FP7 Preventing, Interdicting and Mitigating Extremism (PRIME) and the VOX-Pol Network of Excellence.

 

 

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